The latest climate models project widely varying magnitudes of future extreme precipitation changes, thus impeding effective adaptation planning. Many observational constraints have been proposed to ...

Bootstrap procedures for local projections typically rely on assuming that the data generating process (DGP) is a finite order vector autoregression (VAR), often taken to be that implied by the local ...

The observed warming of global mean surface temperature has been used to reduce uncertainty in future climate change and impact projections, but the information embedded in the spatial pattern of ...

We have just published a new preprint — What demographic prediction can and cannot achieve — that argues that the choice of model drives nearly all the variance in long-run demographic projections, ...