Tropical Storm Erin is expected to intensify to hurricane status later today and could bring rough surf and rip currents to the Jersey Shore by next week.

U.S. shores are unlikely to see a direct hit, but a strong offshore hurricane can produce massive and dangerous waves well away from its center.

Erin, the first hurricane of the season, exploded to a Category 5 hurricane Saturday, and despite fluctuations in intensity, the storm is remaining formidable this weekend. Here's where it could head in the week ahead.

Erin is producing maximum sustained winds of 125 mph (205 km/h) and a central pressure of 940 mb. The storm is moving west‑northwest at 14 mph (22 km/h). Outer rainbands have been producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico since Saturday night.

A westward-moving tropical wave could produce an area of low pressure in the tropical Atlantic late in the week of Aug. 18, the hurricane center said on Aug. 16. The center shows a 20% chance of storm formation over the next week.