The likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September is now seen near 100% after new data showed U.S. inflation increasing at a moderate pace in July and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he thought an aggressive half-point cut was possible given recent weak employment numbers.

The data that caused President Donald Trump to fire the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics is being taken as serious evidence by Federal Reserve officials of a slowing economy.

A top official at the Federal Reserve said Saturday that this month’s stunning, weaker-than-expected report on the U.S. job market is strengthening her